The Polls Are Shifting Dramatically and the Trend Lines Are All in Trump’s Direction
RUSH: I’ve got some polling data here, and then we’ll get back to the phones. “Trump reaches critical 52% approval rate entering the final election stretch — With just 12 days to go before the election, Trump’s approval rating has popped to 52%.” Now, that is considered — traditionally and historically — the Holy Grail of reelection numbers. This is Rasmussen Reports.
“The president’s rating jumped from 49 to 52%.” It’s a job approval poll. It jumped three points in the three-day rolling average Rasmussen puts out in its Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. So Trump is at 52% approval. That is a key number. Traditionally, if an incumbent president reaches 52% in the final stretch, he doesn’t lose the presidential election.
Fifty-two percent, it’s a magic number, and it’s that… There might be a couple of exceptions to it over the years. But it is firmly established to have happened often enough to be a key indicator. “In addition to the daily approval rating, Rasmussen and others this week have also charted Trump’s rise in the presidential race, tightening to two to three points with Biden.”
So it’s all moving in the right direction. In addition to that, Trump has picked up eight points in Ohio in one month, and the Drive-Bys are quiet. It’s worthy to note that the Drive-By Media is ignoring this. But they made a big deal about Biden being up five in Ohio, and now that he’s gone the opposite way, they are standing mute. They’re conditioning voters to expect Biden to win.
That’s what this all is. But I think the Trump rallies are making the silent voter more bold. I think so more and more people are watching that’s rallies. I think they’re getting a different psychological effect from them. “Fox reported Wednesday that its poll showed a dramatic eight-point shift toward Trump and away from Biden in Ohio,” and this is gonna get even worse after Biden’s performance last night about the oil industry.
This is big in Pennsylvania and Ohio and some of these other states. For the first time in four months, Trump is ahead in the Real Clear Politics average. It’s by less than a point, but everybody considers this the Holy Grail. The Real Clear Politics rolling average, the Poll of Polls, whatever it is. So there’s a Mollie Hemingway story:
“A few days before the first presidential debate, Fox News … released polling showing that the situation for President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign was so dire that he was down five points in Ohio. Ohio! Trump won Ohio by eight points in 2016, but now he was down five with just over a month remaining in the race.
“Liberal[s] were thrilled! The result was major news, and journalists made sure to highlight the result. Folks at the Washington Post, MSNBC, New York Times,” da-da-da-da-da-da-da, “made a big deal about it. Fox News reported Wednesday that its polls showed a dramatic eight-point shift toward Trump and away from Biden,” and guess who’s silent? Drive-By Media.
The trend line is all in Trump’s direction, exactly as it was in 2016. One more. This is Rasmussen. This is the National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval for President, and this is something. October 19th through 23rd, 2020. On Monday October 19th, Trump’s approval number among African-American likely voters — job approval — was 25%. The next day, October 20th, it fell a point. Trump’s job approval among black voters, 24%.
This is likely black voters. But on Wednesday it began to change. On Wednesday, October 21st, 31% job approval among black likely voters. Then Thursday, yesterday, 37% job approval black likely voters. Today, 46%. So we’ve gone: Monday, October 19th, 25%; Friday, October 23rd, 46% Black likely voter job approval, Donald Trump. What happened? What happened? The debate happened? Fiddy Cent? What happened?
RUSH: Oh. We’ve got some new polling data in from Florida, and it’s Rasmussen. Let’s see… Trump now is 49, Biden 46 in Florida. “Trump holds a three-point lead in Florida, a state critical to whether or not the president is reelected.” It’s a Rasmussen telephone survey and online, by the way, of likely voters in Florida. It’s always the sample that you want.
You don’t want registered voters, and you don’t want registered adults. You want likely voters. “Trump is now beating Biden 49-46, 3% like some other candidate and another 3% are undecided. In 2016, Trump was under 49% of the vote in Florida, edging Hillary by 1.2 points,” so he’s ahead of the game today versus 2016.
“Eighty-nine percent of voters in Florida have already made up their minds who they’re gonna vote for. Trump leads 50 to 48 among that group.” Hubba hubba. “Among the 45% who say they have already voted, Biden has a 17-point lead 56 to 39,” but the people that haven’t the voted yet, wipe that out. So, anyway, folks, it’s all trending in the right direction.